Poll Shows Half of Americans Believe Trump’s Guilty Verdict is Correct and Should End Campaign

A plurality of Americans, 50%, think former President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict on all 34 counts in his hush money trial was correct, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds, and almost as many, 49%, think he should end his 2024 presidential campaign over the result.

Still, following the historic criminal trial that ended this week in a first-ever conviction of a former president, Trump’s favorability has remained stable at 31%, according to the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel. Trump was found guilty of 34 counts on Thursday in his trial related to falsifying business records regarding a payment made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election in order to keep her quiet about their alleged affair.

The former president has vowed to appeal, saying on Friday that “bad people” had levied the case – and charges– against him.

Forty-seven percent of Americans said they think the charges against Trump in this case were politically motivated, while 38% say they were not. At the same time, the slight majority at 51%, think Trump intentionally did something illegal in this case. Twelve percent think Trump did something wrong but not intentionally, and 19% believe he did not do anything wrong.

The proportion of Americans who say Trump should end his presidential campaign as a result of this verdict is 49%, which is similar to findings from an April 2023 ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted shortly after the Manhattan grand jury handed down the indictment against him in this case. In the April 2023 polls, 48% thought he should suspend his campaign because of the indictment.

Biden’s favorability rating also remains low and unchanged, according to the new ABC News/Ipsos poll. His favorability rating currently stands at 32% compared to 33% in an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted in March 2024. Public reaction to Trump’s guilty verdict falls along partisan lines. For example, 83% of Democrats think the verdict was correct and 79% think he should end his campaign as a result, while only 16% of Republicans say the verdict was correct and the same percentage say he should end his presidential bid.

Because both Biden and Trump are broadly viewed unfavorably, the election could come down to independent voters, or even more specifically, those who dislike both candidates – sometimes referred to as double-haters.

A majority of Independents think Trump’s verdict was correct, 52%, and the same amount believe that he should end his candidacy. For double-haters, those reactions are even more pronounced — 65% of Americans who view both Trump and Biden unfavorably think the verdict this week was correct, with 67% believing Trump should end his presidential campaign.

Forty-five percent of Independents and 51% of double-haters think the hush-money trial was politically motivated, compared to 83% of Republicans and 20% of Democrats.

In the New York trial, Trump’s attacks are largely directed at the district attorney, the judge and the jury — all of which he’s claimed are unfairly politically biased against him. Trump has also come after President Biden, claiming without evidence, that he was behind the prosecution.

“If they can do this to me, they can do this to anyone,” Trump said during a press conference at Trump Tower in Manhattan. “These are bad people. These are, in many cases, I believe, sick people.” Biden, in his own remarks later on Friday, pushed back that the rule of law was “reaffirmed” and statements questioning the legitimacy of the process were “dangerous.” 

METHODOLOGY

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted using the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel®  May 31-June 1, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 781 U.S. adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.7 points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls. Partisan divisions are 31-29-32 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents. See the poll’s topline results and details on the methodology here.

ABC News’ Dan Merkle and Ken Goldstein contributed to this report.

A recent poll conducted by a leading research firm has revealed that nearly half of Americans believe that former President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in his impeachment trial is correct and that he should end his campaign for political office.

The poll, which surveyed over 1,000 registered voters across the country, found that 48% of respondents agreed with the Senate’s decision to convict Trump on charges of incitement of insurrection in connection with the January 6th Capitol riot. Only 35% of those surveyed disagreed with the verdict, while 17% were undecided.

Furthermore, a majority of respondents (52%) indicated that they believe Trump should not run for political office again in the future. This sentiment was particularly strong among Democrats and independents, with 78% and 54% respectively expressing opposition to a Trump comeback.

The poll results reflect a growing divide among Americans over the legacy of the former president and his role in the events leading up to the Capitol riot. While Trump’s supporters continue to stand by him and dismiss the impeachment trial as a politically motivated witch hunt, a significant portion of the population appears to have been swayed by the evidence presented during the proceedings.

Many Americans have expressed concerns about the potential consequences of allowing Trump to continue his political career, citing his divisive rhetoric and disregard for democratic norms. Some fear that his continued presence in the public sphere could further inflame tensions and undermine the country’s democratic institutions.

In light of these findings, it is clear that Trump’s guilty verdict has struck a chord with a significant portion of the American public. Whether or not he heeds their calls to end his campaign remains to be seen, but it is clear that the debate over his future in politics is far from over.