Tick populations could see a “boom” in traditionally cooler regions should global temperatures continue to rise, possibly increasing the likelihood of the spread of tick-borne diseases, according to new research.
Even with just a temperature increase of only 1 degree Celsius, regions that are typically cooler — such as Scotland, where the research was conducted — could see tick densities increase by 26% to 99% by 2080, according to a paper published in the Royal Society Journals on Tuesday.
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Researchers built a mathematical model to predict how tick populations will change in time in response to changes in temperature, Rachel Norman, a professor at the University of Stirling in Scotland and author of the paper, told ABC News.
Included in the model are considerations for types of landscape and the availability for ticks to feed on a host between each of its life stages — egg, larvae and adult, allowing researchers to study the complicated interactions between the landscape, temperatures, the ticks and the hosts they’re feeding on, Norman said. Hosts are typically deer or small rodents but can also be birds, dogs and people.
As Scotland has warmed, ticks have moved further into the mountains and areas that they traditionally would not have been able to survive because temperatures in the past were too cold, Norman said, adding that ticks tend to thrive in wooded areas with undergrowth, should other conditions, like temperature and the availability of hosts, are present as well.
A forest is shown in the county of Stirling in Scotland.
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In some areas in Scotland, cooler temperatures are limiting tick populations. But in other regions that are now warm enough, tick populations can increase significantly because there are plenty of hosts for them to feed on, Norman said.
After the ticks feed on a host, they drop into undergrowth on the ground and molt into the next stage, which typically takes about a year in Scotland due to the cooler temperatures and therefore limits population increases, Norman said. But with warmer springs emerging earlier and warm temperatures lasting through fall, the ticks have a longer period of time in which they can emerge.
“They won’t emerge and start looking for food until we hit a particular temperature” — about 7 degrees centigrade or about 44 degrees Fahrenheit, she said.
The model could apply to other climates around the world as well, Norman said.
In this undated file photo, the town of Stirling, Scotland is shown.
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With booms in tick populations comes the potential for more people around the world to be exposed to tick-borne diseases, the researchers said
The next step in the modeling will be to apply different diseases, such as Lyme, to study, the risk related to the density of tickets, Norman said.
Earth’s average global temperature has surpassed a 1-degree Celsius temperature rise since the late 1800s, with most land areas warming faster than most oceans, according to the Fifth National Climate Assessment, a definitive breakdown of the latest in climate science from 14 different federal agencies, including NOAA, NASA, the EPA, and the National Science. Foundation.
The planet is on the brink of a 1.5-degree Celsius rise in temperature, according to climate scientists.
Ticks are small, blood-sucking parasites that are known to transmit a variety of diseases, including Lyme disease, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, and babesiosis. These tiny creatures thrive in warm and humid environments, making them common in regions with mild climates. However, recent research suggests that climate change may be causing an increase in tick populations in cooler regions as well.
According to a study published in the journal Nature Communications, researchers predict that tick populations will expand into previously cooler regions as temperatures rise due to climate change. This is because ticks are highly sensitive to temperature and humidity, and even small changes in these factors can have a significant impact on their populations.
Warmer temperatures allow ticks to thrive in areas where they were previously unable to survive. In addition, milder winters can also contribute to the survival and reproduction of ticks, leading to larger populations in regions that were once considered too cold for them to inhabit.
The implications of this increase in tick populations are concerning, as it could lead to a higher incidence of tick-borne diseases in areas that were previously unaffected. Lyme disease, in particular, is a major concern as it can cause serious health problems if left untreated.
In order to combat the spread of tick-borne diseases in cooler regions, researchers suggest implementing strategies to control tick populations and reduce human exposure to ticks. This includes using insecticides, conducting regular tick checks after spending time outdoors, and wearing protective clothing when in tick-infested areas.
Furthermore, researchers emphasize the importance of continued monitoring and research on tick populations and their interactions with climate change. By understanding how ticks are adapting to changing environmental conditions, scientists can develop more effective strategies for preventing the spread of tick-borne diseases in cooler regions.
Overall, the increase in tick populations in cooler regions due to climate change is a concerning trend that highlights the need for proactive measures to protect public health. By staying informed and taking precautions to prevent tick bites, individuals can reduce their risk of contracting tick-borne diseases and help mitigate the impact of climate change on tick populations.
