Analysis of the Competitive Virginia GOP Primary Race between Good and McGuire: A Examination of Trump’s Influence

A contentious and closely watched Republican U.S. House primary in Virginia remains too close for any projection, as House Freedom Caucus chair Rep. Bob Good attempts to fend off a challenge from state Sen. John McGuire, who received endorsements from former President Donald Trump. The outcome of the race could signal the power of Trump’s endorsement.

Good, who was first elected to the House in 2020, had antagonized the former president by initially endorsing his presidential primary opponent, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Trump then attacked Good — an effort to take down the candidate he once endorsed, too.

“If he’s reelected, Bob Good will stab Virginia in the back, sort of like he did with me,” Trump said at a rally for McGuire earlier this week.

In an election year, many are looking at the close race to see the power of Trump’s influence and how his endorsement affected the race.

As of Wednesday morning, it’s not yet clear if Trump’s plan to replace Good with McGuire has panned out. McGuire, who was also endorsed by former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, has a slim lead over Good by a margin of about 300 votes, according to unofficial election results.

Good has not conceded. In a post on X late Tuesday night, Good thanked supporters, saying, “The entire DC Swamp was aligned against us with over $10 million in attack ads, but with your help we were able to make this race too close to call.”

Good said the campaign will aim to closely follow the vote count “to ensure all the votes are properly counted in the coming days.”

“No matter the outcome, you’ve shown the DC Swamp that you won’t back down from standing for what’s right. Keep the faith and don’t stop fighting now,” Good wrote.

But McGuire has declared victory in the race, striking a different tone than Good.

“My life is a testament to the fact that America is the greatest country on this planet and I’m so honored to have the chance to serve her again… Folks in the 5th can rest assured that should they elect me in Nov., they will have an effective fighter in Congress who will get the job done for them,” McGuire wrote in a thread on X.

“I look forward to working with Trump to beat Joe Biden in November & pass Trump’s agenda in Congress. Trump & McGuire will Make America Great Again!”

Earlier this week, McGuire implied that he thought Good might cheat to win the election or that there could be issues with the election.

“Let’s make this too big to rig tomorrow, so we can lock arms, and make it too big to rig, so we win Virginia for President Trump in November so we can get him back in there and make America great again,” McGuire said at his rally on Monday.

In a phone interview with ABC News on Tuesday, McGuire said it would be “healthy” to question election results in general when asked about the “too big to rig” comments.

When pressed to share any specific concerns about the primary, McGuire pointed to confusion among voters about who Trump endorsed.

“I was at a Food Lion parking lot the other day, and a woman said, ‘Well, who did Trump endorse…[you] or Bob Good?’ And I said, ‘He’s endorsed me,'” McGuire said, adding that Good is trying to “trick” voters — a reference to messaging on Good’s website that created some confusion about Trump’s endorsement.

Before Trump made his official endorsement of McGuire, Good was touting Trump’s endorsement of him in 2022 on his campaign website. The website was then updated to reflect the caveat that Trump hadn’t endorsed Good in his 2024 race.

On Tuesday night, Good eschewed the trappings of a fancy election night hotel ballroom soiree for a gathering with supporters at an Italian restaurant in a strip-mall filled stretch of Lynchburg, Virginia. Inside La Villa, it was subdued, with the restaurant’s normal activity blending with the watch party.

When he entered the restaurant over half an hour after polls closed, Good spent his time glad-handing supporters, greeting each table. He hugged and kissed his family, before picking up a family member’s baby in a “Babies for Bob” bib to continue the tour.

He spent time sitting, thinking and quietly conferring with his wife. He later left the party without speaking to reporters.

It is possible that the candidate who ends up trailing could request a recount. Virginia does not have automatic recounts. According to Virginia state law, the losing candidate can request a recount if the vote margin is less than 1% of the votes cast. The state pays if the margin is less than 0.5%; the requester pays if it is more than that.

The upcoming Virginia GOP primary race between Glenn Youngkin and Pete Snyder has been gaining significant attention in recent weeks, as both candidates vie for the party’s nomination for governor. With former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Snyder, many are speculating on the impact this will have on the outcome of the race.

Youngkin, a former CEO of the Carlyle Group, has been positioning himself as a political outsider with a focus on economic issues and job creation. He has garnered support from some establishment Republicans, as well as endorsements from several conservative groups. On the other hand, Snyder, a businessman and former Fox News contributor, has been aligning himself closely with Trump and his America First agenda.

Trump’s endorsement of Snyder has undoubtedly given him a boost in the race, as the former president still holds significant sway within the Republican Party. Many GOP voters continue to view Trump as a key figure in the party, and his endorsement can be a deciding factor for many primary voters.

However, it is important to note that Virginia is not a state that is overwhelmingly pro-Trump. In fact, Trump lost the state in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. This could potentially work against Snyder in the general election if he were to win the primary, as some moderate and independent voters may be turned off by his close ties to the former president.

On the other hand, Youngkin’s more moderate approach could appeal to a broader range of voters in the general election. He has been focusing on issues such as education and healthcare, which are important to many Virginia voters. Youngkin’s business background also gives him credibility on economic issues, which could resonate with voters who are concerned about the state’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Overall, the Virginia GOP primary race between Youngkin and Snyder is shaping up to be a competitive one, with Trump’s endorsement playing a significant role in the outcome. It will be interesting to see how this race unfolds and what it could mean for the future of the Republican Party in Virginia.