WASHINGTON — Americans are about evenly split on whether former President Donald Trump should face prison time for his recent felony conviction on hush money charges, according to a new poll from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
Among U.S. adults, 48% say the former president and presumptive Republican nominee should serve time behind bars, and 50% say he should not. About 8 in 10 Democrats think Trump should face prison time, while independents are divided. About half, 49%, of independents say he should, and 46% say he should not.
Most Republicans believe that Trump was mistreated by the legal system and say he should not face jail time. Democrats, conversely, are generally confident that the prosecutors, the judge and members of the jury treated Trump fairly as a defendant.
The results underscore the partisan divide in opinions about the case, which was the first brought against a current or former U.S. president. Both Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden have made the trial central to how they campaign to their respective bases: Biden frequently pointing out that Trump became the first former president to be convicted of a felony; Trump arguing that Democrats orchestrated the case against him for political purposes.
Trump’s sentencing was delayed from Thursday, three days before the Republican National Convention opens, to September at the earliest — when early voting in multiple states will already be underway.
“I thought it was all a sham to begin with,” said Dolores Mejia, a 74-year-old Republican in Peoria, Arizona, who has been closely following the trial. “I wasn’t surprised he got convicted because the court was in New York, a very blue state. … It seemed like it was thoroughly stacked against him.”
A small but notable slice of Republicans have a different view from the rest of their party. The poll found that 14% of Republicans approve of Trump’s conviction, while 12% believe he should spend time behind bars.
“I knew he had a big ego and questionable values when I voted for him the first time in 2016, but I thought the mantle of the presidency would be a humbling experience for him, and I was wrong,” said Leigh Gerstenberger, a Pennsylvania Republican who said he agreed with jurors’ finding in the New York case and believes Trump should spend at least some time behind bars.
“I could not be more disappointed in his conduct both in office and out of office,” the 71-year-old retiree said. “There are plenty of Americans who have spent time behind bars for lesser offenses. President Trump should not be treated any differently.”
About 4 in 10 U.S. adults are extremely or very confident that Trump has been treated fairly by either the jurors, the judge or the prosecutors. Slightly less than half, 46%, approve of the conviction in the case, in line with an AP-NORC poll conducted in June, while about 3 in 10 disapprove, and one-quarter are neutral.
Some Americans do not believe Trump should be imprisoned but reject his arguments that he’s been treated unfairly by the justice system.
“I don’t think the particular crime deserves time,” said Christopher Smith, a 43-year-old independent in Tennessee. “I see what he did, lying on business records because of an affair, as more of a moral crime,” Smith said, explaining that he believes prison should be a punishment for crimes that involve a convicted person actively harming another person.
The poll found that Americans are less divided about another recent high-profile case. Last month, Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, was convicted of three felonies in federal court for lying about drug use when purchasing a gun. Six in 10 U.S. adults approve of Hunter Biden’s conviction, with much smaller political differences: About 6 in 10 Democrats approve, as do around 7 in 10 Republicans.
About 6 in 10 U.S. adults believe Hunter Biden should be sentenced to serve time in prison because of his conviction in this case, with Republicans slightly more likely than Democrats to agree that prison time is warranted.
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The poll of 1,088 adults was conducted June 20-24, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
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Barrow reported from Atlanta.
A recent AP-NORC poll has shed light on the divided opinions among Americans regarding whether former President Donald Trump should be prosecuted in the hush money case involving adult film star Stormy Daniels. The poll, conducted in partnership with The Associated Press and the University of Chicago’s NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, surveyed a nationally representative sample of adults to gauge their views on this controversial issue.
According to the poll results, opinions on whether Trump should be prosecuted in the hush money case are sharply divided along partisan lines. A majority of Democrats (64%) believe that Trump should face legal consequences for his involvement in the hush money payments, while only 12% of Republicans share this view. Independents are more evenly split, with 38% supporting prosecution and 35% opposing it.
The hush money case in question involves payments made by Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, to Stormy Daniels in exchange for her silence about an alleged affair with Trump. Cohen pleaded guilty to campaign finance violations related to the payments, implicating Trump in the process. However, Trump has denied any wrongdoing and has not been charged with a crime in connection to the hush money case.
The poll also revealed stark differences in opinions based on age and education level. Younger adults and those with higher levels of education were more likely to support prosecuting Trump in the hush money case, while older adults and those with lower levels of education were more likely to oppose it.
Overall, the poll highlights the deep political divisions within the American public when it comes to holding Trump accountable for his actions. While some believe that he should face legal consequences for his involvement in the hush money payments, others argue that the issue is politically motivated and should not result in prosecution.
As the debate over whether Trump should be prosecuted in the hush money case continues to unfold, it is clear that Americans hold differing views on this contentious issue. Only time will tell how this debate will ultimately be resolved and what impact it will have on Trump’s political future.
