As leaders in the Middle East and the United States await Iran’s response to the Israeli assassination Wednesday of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, an expert on the situation said it could mean all-out war in the volatile region or lead to a quick resolution of the conflict in Gaza.
Israel is not only facing retaliation from Iran but also from Hezbollah in Lebanon, where Israeli forces on Tuesday killed top Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in a precision missile strike in Beirut similar to one that took out Haniyeh, said retired Marine Col. Stephen Ganyard, a former Deputy Assistant U.S. Secretary of State.
Ganyard said the back-to-back assassinations of Haniyeh and Shukr could lead to an “all-out” war in the region or could be part of a larger plan by Israel to escalate tensions with Hezbollah and Iran to the point where they decide to settle the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
Palestinian top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, leads Muslims in the Eid al-Adha in Gaza City, Tuesday, Aug. 21, 2018. (Photo by Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Nurphoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images
“There’s an old Russian, even Soviet strategic ploy, which is called ‘escalate to de-escalate,'” said Ganyard, an ABC News contributor. “So what the Israelis appear to be doing here is ramping things up very quickly, perhaps to reset the discussions with Hamas and Gaza, to have Hezbollah calm down and to put Iran on greater notice that they are in fact going to be a target in the future if their attacks continue, and that their proxies are very vulnerable to Israeli attacks.”
Haniyeh was killed Wednesday when a long-range missile fired from an Israeli aircraft struck a guest quarters in Tehran where Haniyeh was staying as he attended the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, Iranian officials said.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called for “revenge.”
A handout picture provided by the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei shows him meeting with Palestinian Hamas movement leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 30, 2024.
KHAMENEI.IR/AFP via Getty Images
Ganyard said a number of elements had to come together to make this strike possible.
“What’s interesting about this is first they [Israel] had to have intelligence to know exactly which room that this leader was staying in and then they would have had to have the precision to hit just that room. And they do have these long-range weapons that have the ability to pick individual windows if needed,” Ganyard said.
He said Israel likely chose Tehran to kill Haniyeh because it has an “amazing amount of on-the-ground intelligence there.”
Ganyard said the assassination of Haniyeh was an embarrassment to Iran.
Retired U.S. Marine Col. Stephen Ganyard, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and an ABC News contributor, speaks of the possible fallout from the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas.
ABC News
“Now will Iran go to war over a Hamas leader that was killed on its soil? There’s at least a hope that they won’t,” Ganyard said. “They will have to retaliate in some way because, obviously, they’re humiliated by Israel’s ability to take out a leader on their own soil.”
He said the real challenge for Iran is how far it is going to go because Haniyeh was not “one of its guys,” noting that Hamas is a Sunni organization and the leadership of Iran is Shia.
“So are you really going to start an all-out war with Israel based on somebody from one of your proxies, but not even a co-religious [person]?” Ganyard said.
Iran’s response could be similar to one it took against Israel in April when it launched 300 drones and missiles toward targets in Israel in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike in Damascus, Syria, that killed seven people, including a top Iranian commander. Israel said 99% of the drones and missiles fired by Iran were intercepted by the country’s “Iron Dome” defense system.
“So the response back in April was quite muted. It was like, ‘Okay, you got revenge. It didn’t do anything to us. Let’s call it off, at least simmer things down,'” Ganyard said. “So, that’ll be interesting to see what happens. How far does Iran retaliate? What does ‘revenge’ truly mean? How far are they willing to walk up to that line without going to outright war with the Israelis?”
Ganyard said he believes Israel’s bigger threat is Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“Hezbollah has somewhere between 150,000 and 200,000 ground-to-surface missiles that they can attack Israel with, some of which are precision weapons, which means that all of Israel’s infrastructure is at risk,” Ganyard said. “So the northern threat, Hezbollah, is really what’s going to concern Israel and what the response is from Hezbollah. And is Hezbollah willing to start that war?”
Israeli officials said it took out Shukr, the Hezbollah military commander in Beirut, because it believed he was responsible for a rocket attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on Saturday which killed 12 people, mostly children. Shukr was also wanted in connection to a 1983 bombing in Beirut of a U.S. Marine Corps barracks that killed 300 American and French soldiers.
Ganyard said the alleged Hezbollah strike in the Golan Heights pushed the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah “over the red line.” Hezbollah has denied any involvement in Saturday’s Golan Heights attack.
“How far it goes from here is really going to be a question for the Hezbollah and Iranian leadership,” Ganyard said.
The recent killing of a top Hamas leader in Gaza has sparked fears of potential retaliation from Iran, according to experts in the region. The assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, a senior commander in the Hamas military wing, has raised tensions in the already volatile Middle East and has left many wondering what the next move will be.
Iran, a key supporter of Hamas, has condemned the killing and vowed to seek revenge for the death of al-Mabhouh. Experts believe that Iran may retaliate by increasing its support for Hamas and other militant groups in the region, as well as potentially launching attacks against Israeli targets.
“Iran has a long history of supporting militant groups in the region, and they are likely to see the killing of al-Mabhouh as an attack on their own interests,” said Dr. Ali Hassan, a Middle East expert at the University of Tehran. “They will want to show that they are not to be messed with and may escalate their support for Hamas and other groups in response.”
The killing of al-Mabhouh has also raised concerns about the potential for a wider conflict in the region. Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the assassination, but many believe that it was carried out by Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. This has led to fears that Iran may retaliate not only against Israel, but also against other countries that are seen as allies of Israel.
“Given the close ties between Iran and Hamas, it is likely that Iran will seek to strike back in some way,” said Dr. Sarah Ahmed, a political analyst based in Beirut. “This could take the form of increased support for Hamas, or even direct attacks against Israeli or other targets in the region.”
As tensions continue to rise in the Middle East, many are watching closely to see how Iran will respond to the killing of al-Mabhouh. While it is impossible to predict exactly what form this retaliation may take, experts agree that it is likely to further escalate tensions in an already volatile region.
