In Tuesday’s marquee race, Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman could lose renomination against Westchester County Executive George Latimer in New York’s dark blue 16th District. This race is defined by internal Democratic divisions over the Israel-Gaza conflict, the influence of pro-Israel groups and controversies about Bowman’s past behavior. Bowman has joined with fellow members of the progressive “Squad” and some other Democrats to criticize and oppose U.S. support for Israel, a position that made him a major target for pro-Israel groups.
Bowman lacks a strong electoral record, having won only 54 percent of the primary vote in his first reelection campaign in 2022. He also attracted scrutiny last September when he pulled a fire alarm in a Capitol Hill office building just before a high-profile vote to avoid a government shutdown, for which he was censured by the House and had to pay a fine. On top of this, old blog posts by Bowman came to light in January that included conspiracy theories about the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. All of this has helped boost the primary challenge from Latimer, who’s also built up a strong local political reputation in Westchester County — where 9 in 10 of the district’s voters live, according to Daily Kos Elections.
Still, the big story is Latimer’s support from pro-Israel donors and organizations. Latimer has raised $5.8 million, $2.4 million of which came via individual donors who used the American Israel Public Affairs Committee as a conduit to contribute to his campaign. This has helped give him a financial leg up on Bowman, who has raised $4.3 million. And the monetary disparity grows far starker when we look at outside spending. Groups have spent a whopping $17.7 million either opposing Bowman or supporting Latimer, according to OpenSecrets, while they’ve spent only $3.0 million attacking Latimer or boosting Bowman. As a result, this has turned into the most expensive House primary on record, according to AdImpact.
The principal group behind the massive spending is United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, which has forked out $14.6 million on the race to take down Bowman. Despite the pro-Israel connection, the group’s ads rarely mention the ongoing conflict, instead criticizing Bowman on issues such as not supporting President Joe Biden’s position on a major infrastructure package in 2021 and a debt ceiling deal in 2023. Bowman and his allies haven’t taken this lying down. In the last primary debate, Bowman attacked the “racist MAGA Republicans” — a reference to AIPAC’s bipartisan sources of financial backing — supporting Latimer, a criticism leveled in ads put out by Bowman and outside groups backing him.
The most recent survey of the race — an Emerson College/The Hill/WPIX poll from early June — found Latimer ahead of Bowman 48 percent to 31 percent, which signals just how in danger Bowman is of becoming the first Democratic incumbent to lose renomination in 2024.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
The 2024 primaries in New York, Colorado, and Utah have come to a close, and the results are in. Voters in these states have cast their ballots for their preferred candidates, and now it’s time to analyze the outcomes and what they mean for the upcoming general election.
In New York, the Democratic primary saw a tight race between two frontrunners: incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo and progressive challenger Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Ultimately, Cuomo emerged victorious, securing his spot on the ballot for the general election. On the Republican side, former Congressman Peter King won the primary, setting up a contentious race between him and Cuomo in November.
In Colorado, the Democratic primary for Senate was closely watched, with incumbent Senator Michael Bennet facing a tough challenge from progressive candidate Jason Crow. In the end, Bennet prevailed, securing his party’s nomination for another term in office. On the Republican side, former Governor John Hickenlooper won the primary, setting up a competitive race between him and Bennet in the general election.
In Utah, the Republican primary for Governor was a heated contest, with incumbent Governor Spencer Cox facing off against conservative challenger Mike Lee. Cox ultimately won the primary, solidifying his position as the Republican candidate for Governor in November. On the Democratic side, former Salt Lake City Mayor Jackie Biskupski won the primary, setting up a potentially competitive race against Cox in the general election.
Overall, these primaries have set the stage for some exciting matchups in the general election. With a mix of incumbents and challengers vying for office, voters in New York, Colorado, and Utah will have important decisions to make come November. Stay tuned for more analysis and coverage as we approach Election Day.
