As I noted in the opener for our live blog today, the polls in Ohio’s Senate race showed a “close race” between Moreno and Dolan, with LaRose in a somewhat distant third. The result, however, is anything but close. With 85 percent of the expected vote reporting, Moreno currently has a lead of 17 points, making for an 18-point miss in our polling average (after you account for some rounding). This is not the largest miss in Senate primary polling history — that honor belongs to surveys of the 2018 Republican primary for a special Senate election in Mississippi — but it is nevertheless very large. An 18-point miss is about 2 times the size of the expected miss of primary polls in historical Senate races (8.2 points).
This miss is notable because it’s actually larger than historical expectations. That’s the opposite of what we’ve been seeing with presidential primary polls — which, while they have systematically overestimated support for Trump this cycle, have at least been more accurate than the historical average presidential primary survey. Pollsters will need to do some work to figure out what went wrong.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538
The 2024 Illinois and Ohio primaries have come to a close, and the live results and analysis are in. These crucial primaries have set the stage for the upcoming general election, with voters in both states casting their ballots for a variety of candidates running for various offices.
In Illinois, one of the key races to watch was the Democratic primary for governor. Incumbent Governor J.B. Pritzker faced a challenge from progressive candidate Amara Enyia, who ran on a platform of social justice and economic equality. In the end, Pritzker emerged victorious, securing his spot on the ballot for the general election in November.
On the Republican side, businessman Richard Porter won the primary for governor, beating out several other candidates vying for the nomination. Porter ran on a platform of fiscal responsibility and small government, appealing to conservative voters in the state.
In Ohio, the primary for governor was also closely watched, with incumbent Governor Mike DeWine facing a tough challenge from former Congressman Jim Renacci. DeWine ultimately won the Republican primary, securing his spot on the ballot for the general election.
On the Democratic side, former Mayor of Cincinnati John Cranley emerged as the winner of the primary for governor, defeating several other candidates in a crowded field. Cranley ran on a platform of economic development and job creation, resonating with voters across the state.
Overall, these primaries have provided valuable insights into the political landscape in both Illinois and Ohio. The results show that incumbents like Governor Pritzker and Governor DeWine still have strong support among their respective parties, while challengers like Amara Enyia and Jim Renacci were unable to unseat them.
As we look ahead to the general election in November, it will be interesting to see how these primary results shape the race moving forward. Will Governor Pritzker and Governor DeWine be able to hold onto their seats, or will their challengers gain momentum in the coming months? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain – the 2024 Illinois and Ohio primaries have set the stage for an exciting and competitive election season.
